Singapore Management University

How a 5-Second Binance Move Turned Polymarket Settlements Into an $8.2M Payday

Researchers from Stanford University and Singapore Management University have identified that 821 accounts exploited settlement windows on Polymarket's prediction markets, extracting $8.2 million through market manipulation. The exploit involved manipulating prices on Binance during settlement windows to ensure favorable contract resolutions. Polymarket has since updated its settlement mechanics to a time-weighted average price (TWAP) to prevent future manipulation, a change that took months of trader complaints and academic research to implement.