Prediction Markets
Ongoing coverage on Prediction Markets.
Latest coverage
Google has reportedly started to add Polymarket data to News results
Google has reportedly begun integrating data from the prediction market Polymarket into its Google News results. These integrations appear as large blocks with links to Polymarket, sometimes surfacing as top results for trending topics. While Google announced a partnership with Polymarket and Kalshi for its finance platform in November, the integration into Google News was not explicitly stated.
Morning Legal Briefs
This article discusses the complexities and uncertainties surrounding the taxation of winnings from prediction markets. It highlights that there is currently no clear guidance or established method for individuals to report and pay taxes on such earnings.
The Morning After: Apple’s foldable iPhone may be delayed
Apple's planned foldable iPhone may face delays due to unexpected issues encountered during early production, according to Nikkei. Component suppliers have been informed of a potential schedule slip, impacting the device's availability. The article also briefly touches on other news including OpenAI's ChatGPT Voice mode for CarPlay, a Spaceballs sequel release date, and CFTC action against states regulating prediction markets.
New Jersey has no right to ban Kalshi's prediction market, US appeals court rules
A US appeals court ruled that New Jersey cannot regulate Kalshi's prediction market, stating that authority rests with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The ruling favors prediction markets, which allow users to bet on various outcomes, including sports events. This decision marks a significant federal-level victory for companies like Kalshi against state-level regulatory challenges.
Evening Legal Briefs
The CFTC has filed lawsuits against three states, alleging they are attempting to improperly regulate prediction markets. This action highlights ongoing legal battles over the oversight of such financial instruments.
CFTC sues three states for trying to regulate prediction markets
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is suing Illinois, Arizona, and Connecticut for attempting to regulate prediction markets, asserting its exclusive jurisdiction. The CFTC views these markets as trading in futures contracts, distinct from illegal gambling, while the states argue they are overstepping their authority. The lawsuit highlights ongoing disputes over the classification and oversight of prediction markets, with potential implications for market participants and regulatory frameworks.
Evening Legal Briefs
The White House has proposed a new framework for Artificial Intelligence policy that aims to supersede existing state laws. Separately, a WIRED article discusses a turbulent week for prediction markets, describing them as 'a rigged and dangerous product'.
Evening Legal Briefs
Arizona has filed criminal charges against Kalshi, a prediction market platform. Separately, a judge ruled that Apple can delist applications with or without cause, representing a loss for app developers.
Arizona attorney general sues Kalshi on illegal gambling charges
Arizona's Attorney General Kris Mayes has sued Kalshi, alleging the company operates an illegal gambling business by allowing bets on elections. Kalshi, which defines itself as a prediction market platform operating under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, faces similar charges in Nevada and has been in the news due to an insider trading accusation involving an employee of YouTuber MrBeast.
Bitcoin vs GTA VI: Prediction Market Goes Viral as Release Delays Mount
A prediction market on the Ares betting platform has gone viral, posing the question of whether Bitcoin will reach $1 million before Rockstar Games releases Grand Theft Auto VI. The odds have shifted significantly, reflecting market sentiment on both the volatile cryptocurrency and the notoriously long development timelines in the gaming industry. This unusual comparison highlights the extended wait times for major game releases and the hype cycles present in both the crypto and gaming worlds.
