Prediction Markets
Ongoing coverage on Prediction Markets.
Latest coverage
Prophecy Social Lets Anyone Launch Their Own Prediction Market With Venues
Prophecy Social has launched Prophecy Social Venues, allowing creators and communities to establish their own branded prediction market platforms using Prophecy's infrastructure. These venues handle branding and curation, while Prophecy manages resolution, settlement, and shared liquidity. The system utilizes AI agents for market resolution, aiming to reduce trust gaps and slowdowns.
Somnia’s Prophecy Social Launches Closed Beta for Community-Run Prediction Venues
Prophecy Social has launched a closed beta for its Venues product, allowing communities and projects to operate their own branded prediction market venues on the Somnia platform. These venues leverage shared liquidity across the Prophecy protocol and utilize AI agents for on-chain market resolution. The beta has already seen significant user and market activity, with plans for custom branding and tailored community experiences.
Gemini taps Apex to pipe crypto prediction markets into brokerages
Gemini has signed a letter of intent with Apex Fintech Solutions to distribute its regulated crypto prediction markets to brokerage firms. This partnership will make Gemini Titan the exclusive venue for crypto event contracts routed through Apex's futures commission merchant to its brokerage clients. The move aims to leverage Gemini's regulatory licenses and Apex's distribution network to expand the reach of prediction markets in the cryptocurrency space.
How a 5-Second Binance Move Turned Polymarket Settlements Into an $8.2M Payday
Researchers from Stanford University and Singapore Management University have identified that 821 accounts exploited settlement windows on Polymarket's prediction markets, extracting $8.2 million through market manipulation. The exploit involved manipulating prices on Binance during settlement windows to ensure favorable contract resolutions. Polymarket has since updated its settlement mechanics to a time-weighted average price (TWAP) to prevent future manipulation, a change that took months of trader complaints and academic research to implement.
Astra Nova Brings Prediction Markets to TokenPlay AI With 50% RVV Fee Cut
Astra Nova has launched a prediction market on the TokenPlay AI platform, allowing users to create and trade on future event outcomes. Transactions settled in the RVV token receive a temporary 50% discount on fees, aiming to increase RVV's utility. The platform, operated by Astra Tech, utilizes AI for app and game development, with fees contributing to RVV buybacks and burns.
Evening Legal Briefs
eBay has been ordered to pay $46 million to journalists who were targeted in a harassment campaign orchestrated by the company. In a separate legal development, a judge has blocked a state law that would have banned prediction markets.
Meta wants to get into the prediction market game
Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg is reportedly exploring the development of a standalone prediction market app, codenamed Arena. Unlike existing platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, Arena would utilize a points and ranking system rather than real-money bets. The app would operate independently but leverage Meta's existing social media user base for growth.
Evening Metaverse
Meta is reportedly looking to launch its own prediction market, according to TechCrunch. The article also briefly mentions updates for Mozilla Firefox and the banning of Wikipedia co-founder Larry Sanger.
Meta reportedly dips its pathetic toes into the prediction market space
Meta is reportedly exploring entry into the prediction market space, with Mark Zuckerberg directing the company to build its own platform. This move signifies Meta's interest in a new area of online services.
Morning Metaverse
This article discusses the philosophical implications of prediction markets within the metaverse, noting that while they have achieved what some proponents desired, there is a surprising lack of satisfaction among them. The piece explores the unexpected outcomes and potential downsides of these systems.
A Google engineer who allegedly made over $1,000,000 after predicting 2025's most-searched person has now been…
A Google security engineer, Michele Spagnuolo, has been arrested for allegedly using confidential company information to make over $1.2 million by betting on prediction markets. He is accused of leveraging insider data to correctly predict Google's most-searched person of the year, D4vd. Spagnuolo faces charges including commodities fraud, wire fraud, and money laundering.
Spain blocks Polymarket and Kalshi as it investigates prediction market platforms
Spanish authorities have blocked access to prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi as part of an ongoing investigation. This action follows similar regulatory attempts by US states, though the federal government has not taken the same stance.
Memorial Day Legal Briefs
The article discusses legal challenges surrounding prediction markets, with Kalshi and Rhode Island suing each other. It also briefly touches upon the legality of the US's significant investment in quantum computing.
Kalshi and Rhode Island sue each other in latest challenge to prediction markets
Kalshi and Rhode Island are engaged in a legal dispute, with each party suing the other. This action by Rhode Island follows similar legal challenges from other states concerning prediction markets.
Minnesota passes ban on prediction markets, Trump Administration sues
Minnesota has enacted a new law that prohibits the advertisement and operation of prediction markets within the state. The Trump Administration has filed a lawsuit in response to this legislation.
Minnesota passes prediction markets ban
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has filed a lawsuit to block a recently passed ban on prediction markets in Minnesota. The ban, enacted by the state, is being challenged by the federal regulatory body.
The Morning After: Polymarket and a hairdryer
This article covers multiple developments including alleged rigging of bets on the prediction market Polymarket using temperature data, and a US soldier arrested for using classified information to bet on political events. It also reports on Microsoft's decision to cut Xbox Game Pass prices while excluding new Call of Duty titles from day-one availability, and Anker's development of its own AI chip for consumer electronics.
Kalshi suspended three political candidates from its platform for insider trading
Prediction market Kalshi has suspended three political candidates, Mark Moran, Matt Klein, and Ezekiel Enriquez, for alleged insider trading. The company cited new rules implemented last month to prevent politicians from betting on events they can influence. Moran received a five-year suspension and a fine exceeding $6,000, while Klein and Enriquez settled for lesser fines and shorter suspensions. The article also touches on ongoing lawsuits attempting to regulate prediction markets as gambling.
Evening Legal Briefs
OpenAI is reportedly under criminal investigation regarding ChatGPT's involvement in a shooting incident. Separately, the New York Attorney General has filed a lawsuit against two prediction markets for alleged illegal gambling activities.
New York Attorney General sues two prediction markets on illegal gambling allegations
New York Attorney General Letitia James has sued Coinbase Financial Markets and Gemini Titan, alleging they are operating unlicensed gambling operations and violating state laws by allowing bets on games involving New York college sports teams. This action follows similar moves by other states, though the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission has asserted federal authority over prediction markets.